Monday, February 07, 2005

SUVs Targeted Again

There is a new commercial campaign aiming to remind young drivers that SUVs are more difficult to handle than cars and thus more dangerous. The commercial stars a CGI creation called "esuvee" that looks like one of those Star Wars creatures ridden by the Sand People. All in all, the commercial looks pretty lame and I can't imagine it making a dent (no pun intended) in the driving habits of young testosterone laden males. But I digress...

Although this commercial differs because it is safety/driving related, it does remind me of how much I want to comment about the anti-SUV backlash. This is a meme which has become pervasive. SUV driving is routinely associated with social and environmentally irresponsibility. Not too mention the assertions by Arianna Huffington and the like that driving SUVs supports terrorism. I will now deconstruct this meme in four parts:

First let's address the exaggerated notion that SUVs are responsible for depleting a large share of oil resources. But some facts: Personal Transportation only accounts for about 34 percent of all petroleum use and about 13 percent of all energy use. The other two-thirds petroleum use is industry (plastics, fibers, heating, etc.) and commercial transportation (planes, trains, ships, etc.). All told, only 6 percent of total U.S. petroleum use can be attributed to SUV driving. Cars and other light trucks (pickups, vans) utilize 16 percent of total U.S. petroleum by comparison. Obviously, there are more cars than SUVs, but still; if you factor in the actual average mileage difference (using CAFE numbers) then even if all those SUVs were traded in for cars, the savings in petroleum use would only amount to about 1.5 percent (and less than 1 percent of all energy use). Statistically significant, but hardly the death knell of our environment and democracy. Also note that similar attacks on pickup trucks, large sedans, performance cars and older cars are much rarer, even though those classes of vehicles have equivalent fuel economy numbers as SUVs. [Note: all numbers derived from this Cato institute article.]

Secondly, let's discuss usage. All things being equal, SUVs do consume more energy resources and produce more pollutants than smaller cars. However, it is unfair to single out driving SUVs as irresponsible when one can make similar value judgments about other activities that affect energy usage. For example: Are people who drive to the movie theater less moral than those who watch Pay Per View? In America, we are free to make consumer choices; these choices drive our economy and ultimately our quality of life. Other things are consumer choices as well. Why not vilify those who have long commutes to work? Shouldn't these people in the interest of the environment and national security be morally compelled to move? In a country where liberty is sacred, what makes one person's neighborhood choice more important than another's vehicle choice? I could argue that a high percentage of SUV's are owned by families with young children who tend to stay home on weekend nights, while young adults in cars drive all over town bar hopping. Who is more responsible by the logic of the anti-SUV activists in this admittedly contrived scenario? Brown baggers vs. those who go out to lunch? Long distance (across town) couples? Vacation takers? Boaters vs. non-boaters? Poor people driving older cars? If blame is to be assigned, let's be fair and target everyone. It is disingenuous to do otherwise.

Thirdly, if the real problem is limiting dependence on foreign oil, then let's simply reduce the amount that we buy. That would raise the price of gasoline drastically, to about the level paid in Europe and elsewhere. The result is that the market would simply respond appropriately. People would buy more fuel efficient vehicles by economic choice, not by coercion. That the beauty of free markets. Problem solved. Those who chose to afford the higher cost of operating SUVs would still buy them. Such a market would also compel auto manufacturers to invest more in developing highly fuel efficient vehicles. As long as gasoline remains relatively cheap the incentive to do so is not as great. Getting the government to include SUVs in its car class CAFE standards would also solve much of the problem (though perhaps introducing others). At bottom this is a political issue, not an ethical one.

Finally, the argument that buying gasoline makes one responsible for the illegal actions of someone else many, many transactions removed from that perfectly legal and necessary purchase is specious at best. I do not have the time and space to peform a full philosophical critique, but it's obvious that we all use energy in countless way, so that would make us all guilty (though again, that line of reasoning is highly faulty). I do not see a constructive purpose in assigning degrees of guilt. We could all increase the frequency at which we walk or ride bikes, so why pick on the SUV? It is not fair or justified. If SUVs never existed I believe that terrorists would be just as well financed as they are today. Those financiers who share their ideology would simply dig a few imperceptible percentage points deeper into their family fortunes, which have been amassing for over half a century.

We all should be conscious about our environmental footprint, one should not go out and buy a gas guzzler for the hell of it. But consumer decisions are complex and SUV bashing is a simplistic and misguided meme too readily adopted by those putting ideology ahead of sound reasoning. The good news is that Hybrid technology is finding its way into SUVs, so maybe this somewhat artificial vilification will fade.

[Disclaimer: I own a V6 Toyota 4Runner. Hey, but I frequently carpool with my wife to work and I subscribe to Netflix -- so its a wash :) ]

9 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Alan...good post. Let me ask you some questions. If public transportation only accounts for 34% of oil usage; what portion of that useage is by SUVs and light trucks as opposed to other vehicles? This should be a fairly easy one; and you know what I'm asking; are SUV's using a disproportionate share of that 100% of 34% in operations?
Second; what is your source for these numbers? I'm asking because these numbers do not jibe with every other set of statistics I've seen for energy consumption in this country.

Don't get me wrong; I couldn't care less if you drove a Hummer; but if you're going to base an argument on "facts and statistics", then I want to explore them.

1:29 PM, February 16, 2005  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

**Getting the government to include SUVs in its car class CAFE standards would also solve much of the problem.**

This comment is made from time to time. I'm always wondering what difference that's supposed to make. When I was a dealership mechanic, I was required to go to classes put on by GM. Mostly to show you what's coming up in the next model year. Back around 1979 or 80 I remember someone asking about CAFE standards and fines for not meeting them. The comment the GM guy made at the time was they'll sell the vehicles the public wants to buy and pay the fine.

3:19 PM, February 16, 2005  
Blogger Alan said...

John,
I got the numbers from a Cato Institute article. Here is the URL:
http://www.cato.org/dailys/07-03-04.html(I also remembered similar numbers from a Car&Driver magazine article).

I also checked a goverment transportation statistics site and at least verified that about 27% of engery use is for Personal Transporation.

The government link is: http://www.transtats.bts.gov/Databases.asp?Subject_ID=7&Subject_Desc=Energy&Mode_ID2=0and the table I found is: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0201a.html

But largely I'm trusting the Cato numbers.

According to Cato, Transportation accounts for 67% of oil use (but only 27% of all engery) but Personal Transportation is half that, so 34% of oil use.

Of the 34% about half or 18% of all transportation is light trucks and SUVs which extroplated back to all U.S. oil use represents about 12%. SUVs are half of light trucks, so about 6% of all oil usage (2.4% of all engergy) comes from SUVs. On average cars get 25% better gas mileage, so thats where the 1.5% oil use (.6% of all engergy) savings comes from if all SUVs are replaced by cars.

Obviously some specific cars get 100% better mileage than some specific SUVs, but my point is that SUVs as a class are targeted and vilified where as Mustang GTs, Lincoln Town Cars, Ford F150 pickups, 1972 Chevy Impalas (all guzzlers) are not. The average car (20-25 mpg) only gets 25% better mileage than the average SUV (16-18 mpg).

I don't know what percentage of all personal vehicles are light trucks and SUVs, so I don't know what their proportional usage is -- your question is valid. I'm guessing they (trucks and SUVs) burn 25% proportionally more of the 34% fuel consumed for personal transportation. (Again only 1.5% more in total) Theoretical questions such as what if all cars were SUVs are just that -- theoretical. The current proportion is probably as high as it will ever get as those that want SUVs have them. Plus many SUV models are trending smaller again, i.e. psuedo-wagons.

My overall point, is that the total engergy consumption of SUVs is not as outrageously as is commonly depicted, but I acknowledge that it is worse than cars.

The rest of my post merely wonders why SUVs are universally vilified, but other engery using activities are not. A Hummer not driven very frequently is more efficient than a car driven around all day for frivolous reasons. Yes, it all averages out and everything else being equal energy efficiency would improve sans SUVS. But I could say the same thing about going out to eat at lunch. Choosing not to drive or moving closer to work would save 100% of fuel for every mile, not the 25% saved by switching to a car. Its all relative. I think the SUV backlash has taken on mythic proportions that are exaggerated. There is merit to the anti-SUV argument, but it has become a bit of a witch hunt that people latch onto without fully considering all angles.

6:06 PM, February 16, 2005  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Average new car or SUV looses 60% of it value in four years now isn't that a great investment. The people driving new vehicles are getting their due punishment regardless of whether it is a SUV/truck or car. Once the gas prices get up above 3 or 4 bucks a gallon the market will adjust itself and the SUV fad will be over, untill then drive on brother, don't worry be happy. You know we put all those real smart politicians in office to make all the decisions for us why should we worry about anything other than who got voted off the island or who the new american idol is?

6:31 PM, February 16, 2005  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Alan, actually, I wasn't so much thinking of the transportation numbers, but the other ones....so when you said Cato, I also kind of questioned that, since they started as a Libertarian-leaning think tank that became, when popular, a shill for big business (who now provides most of their funding). But that's neither here nor there; I agree that SUV energy usage is not that aggregious; truly, my studies of energy useage show the VAST majority of energy useage is in buildings, rather than transportaion. I was under the impression that something like 60% or more of all energy was used by buildings (industrial, commercial, governmental, and private homes), which I think most people would accept.
Just for fun, I wonder how numbers (both environmental ones such as emissions), and oil usage would be effected if every SUV were suddenly turned into, oh, say a small diesel car or one of the hybrids?

And I completely agree with DNT; I'm hilariously amused by what people pay for such an instantaneously depreciated item. It's like getting a gold bar and as soon as you walk out of the store, whacking off 20% of it and throwing it in the sewer.

6:35 PM, February 16, 2005  
Blogger Alan said...

Yes, the Cato institute is a libertarian think tank and prone to be anti-govermental regulation and pro business, thats why I tried to verify with the other sites mentioned.
And yes, replacing every SUV with a hybrid would make a bigger dent, but still probably not earth shattering. For instance a full 6% savings in oil usage (replacing SUVs with nothing at all, i.e. walking/biking) would mean (if I'm thinking right) that a 100 year oil supply would then last 106 years -- significant but not likely to matter much if we don't figure out how to harness a replacement fuel/power source.

Better than replacing every SUV would be to replace every car made before 1980 (particularly for the emmissions numbers) -- again to my point that its not just SUVs.

Eventually I imagine every new vechicle will be a hybrid and that will be good for all of us.

Finally, I also totally agree with DNT about new vechicles. I've never bought a new car in my life and I probabaly never will. Why? When I can buy a three year old vehicle for half the price that it was new (and one well maintained such that no one will know the difference). But I don't see what that has to do with SUVs. I bought our Toyota 4Runner used.

11:59 AM, February 17, 2005  
Blogger Alan said...

I can't speak to how prevalent the practice of auto manufacturers choosing to pay CAFE fines as opposed meeting the standards was in 1980 or is now, but one somewhat obvious remedy to that situation would be to increase the fines until they hurt sufficiently enough to stop the practice.

As for CAFE standards in general, there are some who argue that they aren't needed and have unintended and deleterious consequences. This Heritage Foundation article recommends removing them altogether.

Among their arguments is that making cars lighter (a chief method of meeting the CAFE standards) has contributed to increased accident fatalities (up to 4000 a year), including accidents not involving other vehicles, such as guard rails and trees. Such single vehicle accidents make up 50% of all fatalities. (So you can't say that lighter cars only contribute to higher fatalities when they are hit by SUVs.)

They also argue that manufacturing the lighter materials, plastics, alloys and composites, merely shift energy usage from fuel efficiency to the energy cost that it takes to create these lighter materials in the first place.

The Heritage Foundation is a conservative group and may well be biased in the presentation of their data.

While I generally believe that free market economies have created the best quality of living for the highest percentage of people than other economies tried to date, I am very skeptical of removing all regulation as history has shown that corporations have not been great at regulating themselves (and consumers often are not able to find out about dangerous products or practices until it is too late).

Just food for thought. As in most public policy debates, I suspect that both sides are not being totally honest and bias data towards their own agendas.

12:41 PM, February 17, 2005  
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